Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 hours ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 4 September 2026 at 04:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 22nd strongest of the 55 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 9 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 3 at 8:47PM EDT until September 4 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
Urban PEI: 873,512 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 9 March 2026
- August 2, 2026 · 7.6 km
- September 2, 2026 · score 54 · 8.1 km
- June 18, 2026 · 9.6 km
How we know
2 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 41 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 41 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.86/1 |
| Coordinates | 42.9124, -78.6346 |
| Nearest City | Depew (5 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 873.5K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-04T00:47:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.afad5261ed8c52c61c20501ed432fc66064d8d4c.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v4 (historical). Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-04T00:47:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-04T00:52:52.907Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Erie, NY; Wyoming, NY; Erie, NY |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 3 at 8:47PM EDT until September 4 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-09-04T00:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.afad5261ed8c52c61c20501ed432fc66064d8d4c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.180064dede54a4a46477ca1034d38460470043c5.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | Kenmore |
| Iem County | Erie |
| Iem State | NY |
| Iem Wfo | BUF |
| Iem Remark | 2.26 inches of rain in an hour from 6:45 to 7:45. Water over the curb on Wardman Road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_F_42.940_-78.860_1788479400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788479400000,"latitude":42.94,"longitude":-78.86},{"id":"iem_F_42.940_-78.870_1788479100000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788479100000,"latitude":42.94,"longitude":-78.87},{"id":"iem_F_42.990_-78.910_1788479640000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788479640000,"latitude":42.99,"longitude":-78.91},{"id":"iem_F_42.930_-78.700_1788479220000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788479220000,"latitude":42.93,"longitude":-78.7},{"id":"iem_F_42.940_-78.850_1788479400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788479400000,"latitude":42.94,"longitude":-78.85},{"id":"iem_R_42.970_-78.880_1788483600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788483600000,"latitude":42.97,"longitude":-78.88},{"id":"iem_F_42.960_-78.870_1788479100000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788479100000,"latitude":42.96,"longitude":-78.87}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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